Almond Comeback? Terra Nova's Outlook for the 2025 California Crop

Terra Nova Trading released its almond crop projection last year, estimating California’s 2024 almond production at a surprising 2.80 billion pounds—a bold forecast that outpaced other early estimates and sparked conversation across the industry.

While final USDA receipts are still being tallied, the 2024 season is shaping up to be a strong rebound from 2023’s disappointing 2.47 billion-pound harvest.

A Look Back at 2024: Heat, Cutbacks, and a Resilient Outcome

The 2024 almond season faced significant headwinds. A prolonged heatwave from late June through early August impacted kernel development and moisture retention. Compounding the issue, many growers scaled back on inputs like fertilizers and micronutrients due to soaring prices and economic pressure.

Despite those challenges, early receipts suggest the crop came in stronger than anticipated—further validating Terra Nova's higher-end projection.

Bee Losses Cast a Shadow Over the 2025 Crop

Looking ahead to the 2025 season, there are major concerns about pollination. Terra Nova's April report included alarming data from beekeepers, who reported an average 62% colony loss between June 2024 and February 2025.

With honeybees playing a vital role in almond set, such dramatic losses could put downward pressure on yields this year, regardless of weather or input investments.

Acreage Levels Remain Flat

California enters the 2025 season with roughly 1.4 million bearing acres, a figure that has remained relatively stable—if not slightly declining—over the past three years. This stagnation marks a shift from the almond industry's previous expansion streak and reflects ongoing grower uncertainty around water availability, input costs, and regulatory constraints.

The Bottom Line: Looking at 2025 with Measured Optimism

Although 2024's estimate showcased the almond industry’s ability to bounce back, expectations for 2025 are more restrained. Pollination setbacks, economic pressure, and regulatory hurdles remain key risk factors.

Still, California’s almond growers have long demonstrated adaptability in the face of adversity. As we head into the heart of the 2025 season, the industry will once again rely on innovation, grit, and good weather to deliver results.

Want the full breakdown? Read the full Terra Nova Trading 2025 California Almond Crop Estimate.