The 2025 California tomato season is officially underway as transplanting begins across the Central Valley. Morning Star’s latest "Tomato Bites" update provides a comprehensive analysis of the industry, highlighting key factors that will shape this year’s production and market outlook.
Strong Start with Favorable Conditions
California tomato growers are entering the season with a strong foundation, bolstered by improved water availability and increased investments in reservoir infrastructure. Over the next three months, more than 1.4 billion tomato plants will be transplanted, with careful management to ensure uniform maturity and an efficient harvest. Early indications suggest a smooth transition from greenhouse seedlings to field planting, fostering optimism for the upcoming season.
California’s water reserves remain at favorable levels, with statewide snowpack at 85% of average and reservoirs at 118% of average following February storms. In response, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has more than doubled initial water allocations for Central Valley farmers compared to the previous year and has committed $315 million to reservoir expansions. Additionally, the State Water Project has announced a 35% allocation, reinforcing long-term water security.
Market Outlook: Supply, Demand & Global Trends
Morning Star’s update also provides insights into the broader processed tomato market, noting that the U.S. supply remains stable. However, global production is forecasted to decline by 10%, which could have implications for pricing and demand within California’s tomato sector.
As of December 1st, total U.S. processed tomato supply stood at 10.3 million raw short tons, with an average disappearance rate of 1.15 million tons per month. If this trend continues, inventories could decline to 4.5 million tons by July 1st, 2025—equivalent to approximately 4.5 months of stock before the new harvest begins.
Processors typically target 2.5 months of inventory to balance holding costs while ensuring consistent supply chain operations. The USDA’s January NAS report projects 200,000 acres planted this season, with an estimated yield of 51 tons per acre—totaling 10.2 million tons, approximately 8% below 2024’s harvested tonnage. While this projection is optimistic, historical trends suggest actual yields could fall below 10 million tons.
California continues to strengthen its position within the North American processed tomato market, where steady consumption growth is anticipated. Meanwhile, global export trends remain stable, reinforcing the importance of maintaining a competitive edge within the international marketplace.
What’s Next for Growers?
As the season progresses, industry stakeholders must remain adaptable to evolving market conditions and environmental variables. While contracted acreage has decreased, growers are prioritizing their highest-performing fields, which could enhance overall yield potential. However, some 2025 contract demand may still need to be supplemented with prior crop inventories to maintain balanced stock levels.
Industry analysts emphasize the importance of closely monitoring crop health, tracking market trends, and engaging early with processors to ensure efficient harvesting and streamlined supply chain operations.
For a more detailed examination of the February industry update, including expert analysis on projected yields, inventory management, and demand trends, the full report is available here. The Ag Center News will continue to provide comprehensive coverage of California’s tomato season and other key developments in the agricultural sector.
