Caught in the Current: California’s Salmon Crisis and the Growing Strain on Central Valley Agriculture

Critically Low Chinook Numbers, Drought, and Water Management Collide in Complex Crisis

For the third year in a row, California’s commercial salmon fishing season has been canceled, dealing a blow to coastal communities, tribal nations, and the state’s fishing industry. The Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) made the decision earlier this week, citing critically low returns of fall-run Chinook salmon to the Sacramento River—marking yet another chapter in the species’ ongoing decline.

The closures come amid rising tensions over how California’s limited water supply is allocated. While environmental advocates decry the ecological consequences of warm river temperatures and disrupted flows, growers in the Central Valley are also sounding the alarm: water shortages aren’t just threatening fish—they’re threatening farms and food production across the state.

An Icon in Decline

Once a symbol of abundance in California’s rivers, the fall-run Chinook salmon is nearing collapse. According to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, recent returns are among the lowest ever recorded. Prolonged drought, hotter river conditions, and reduced cold water flows from reservoirs have all contributed to the population’s downfall.

Barry Nelson, policy advisor with the Golden State Salmon Association, called on Governor Gavin Newsom to intervene. “The Water Board must demand cold water releases on the Sacramento River to prevent another deadly salmon die-off and set science-based flow protections for long-term recovery,” Nelson said.

A Water Crisis With No Clear Villains

At the heart of this ecological crisis lies a longstanding battle over water in California—a state where agriculture consumes approximately 80% of developed water supplies. During the worst drought years, water was diverted from river systems to sustain urban and agricultural needs, leaving salmon spawning grounds dry or lethally warm.

Environmental advocates argue these decisions favored short-term agricultural production over long-term ecological sustainability. However, farming groups counter that California growers are also suffering and are being unfairly villainized.

In 2024, the Central Valley Project (CVP) initially announced a 35% water allocation for South-of-Delta agricultural contractors that shortly followed, increasing to 40%. While an improvement, many growers say the allocations still fall short—especially considering the uncertainty and timing, which often come after planting decisions have already been made.

Adding to the strain, California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is mandating reductions in groundwater pumping, which the Public Policy Institute of California warns could lead to taking 500,000 to 1 million acres of farmland out of production in the Central Valley.

Economic Fallout on Land and Sea

The economic impact of the salmon season closure has been swift and severe. Charter fishing operations, seafood processors, restaurants, and tourism-related businesses are bracing for another tough year. Some commercial fishermen have retired early, sold their vessels, or turned to government assistance to stay afloat.

But inland, many farmers face a similarly uncertain future. In drought-stricken counties like Fresno, Kings, and Tulare, growers have seen their crop yields decline, their costs rise, and their access to water evaporate. A 2023 UC Merced study estimated that agricultural drought impacts in California cost the economy over $1.1 billion annually.

A Need for Balance and Long-Term Solutions

The push for salmon recovery is urgent—but so is the need to support California’s food producers. Advocates on both sides say a sustainable future will require investment in habitat restoration, updated water infrastructure, smarter management, and a more balanced approach to allocation.

There are signs of progress: increased funding for groundwater recharge projects, renewed efforts to modernize conveyance systems, and legislation aimed at improving both environmental and agricultural outcomes. Still, Governor Newsom’s office has yet to release a comprehensive plan that unites these efforts under a single, actionable framework.

With both salmon and farms facing existential threats, many are calling this moment a wake-up call.

A Crossroads for the Golden State

As the state braces for the economic and ecological fallout of yet another lost salmon season, the broader water war remains unresolved. The question isn’t whether salmon or agriculture should survive—but whether California can find a way to save both before it’s too late.