Last week the USDA announced that China made its first soybean purchase of the 2024-2025 crop year, booking 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans. By comparison, China made its first U.S. soybean purchase for last year’s marketing season in January 2023.
According to the USDA's outlook, strong supply and declining prices have made U.S. soybeans more attractive to global buyers, though sales are expected to remain under pressure after this year’s harvest due to increased competition with South America.
Combined Brazil and Argentina soybean exports to China between August-June are estimated at 74 million tons. In contrast, U.S. exports to China during the same time period dropped to nearly 25 million tons, more than a 20 percent decline compared to the prior year.
“Over the next few months, the market’s attention will likely turn away from South America and toward U.S. harvest progress and crop size,” the USDA said in its outlook. “With highly competitive Brazil prices, another year of abundant Brazil carryout, and new record production prospects for the Southern Hemisphere in 2024/25, U.S. soybean exports may continue to experience greater competition after harvest.”
The USDA projects the U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans to be down 10 cents to $11.10 per bushel.
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