USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Pacific Regional Office has released its initial subjective forecast for 2023 California almond production. To no surprise, the projection is lower than last year, after the weather patterns California experienced in the early part of 2023.
NASS Forecasts:
Production at 2.50 billion pounds, 3% below last year’s final production of 2.57 billion pounds
Almond bearing acres at 1,380,000, 2% above the 2021 bearing acreage of 1,350,000
Yield at 1,810 pounds per acre, down 90 pounds from last year, and the lowest since 2005
"Record level rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions impacted pollination. Limited bee flight hours were reported in all growing regions. There were reports of downed trees due to high winds and oversaturated soil. Yields are expected to be the lowest in years, with variation observed across varieties and orchard locations."
This almond crop estimate came as a surprise to most people, who expected to see a 2.3-2.4 billion pound estimate. Historically, the Subjective Estimate that is released in May is higher than what the crop actually comes in at and the Objective Estimate, released in July, is a little closer to actual almond production.
Graph Courtesy of the USDA NASS
Graph Courtesy of the USDA NASS
“A lower crop estimate was not unexpected considering all that growers dealt with last year and during this year’s bloom,” says Richard Waycott, President and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “In the past three years, growers have faced high costs, shipping issues, drought, and more. But the water picture is better, at least for this year, shipping continues at record levels, and global demand continues to grow. California’s almond farmers are prepared to meet that global demand.”
The USDA NASS creates the subjective production forecast based on a survey conducted from April 19 to May 6 from a sample of 500 almond growers. Participants had the option of reporting their data by mail, online, or phone.
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