Throughout the 20th century, the United States was once known as the global leader in grain exports. Though the U.S. continues to produce and export higher volumes each year, other countries, specifically in the Black Sea, have become major players in corn, wheat, and soybean exports and have taken the crown.
With large players entering the market and the ongoing war in Ukraine, the future of the grain export market is continuing to evolve, and seemingly not in the U.S.'s favor.
CORN
In the month of April, China canceled more than 562,800 metric tons of US corn orders. The cancellations highlighted concerns about weak demand for U.S. agriculture exports due to massive harvests and more competitive prices in Brazil. Brazil is set to surpass the US as the world's largest corn exporter, as their production is expected to hit 124.9 million tons (up from 10.4% compared to last year).
SOYBEANS
A few decades ago, the United States was responsible for about 80 percent of the entire world’s soybean exports. In the crop year 2021/2022, the U.S. only accounted for about 38 percent of global soybean exports, while Brazil accounted for 51 percent. Therefore, even though both countries are continuing to grow their exports, a larger share of the global export pie is being captured by Brazil.
“Right now, we’re on a trend of lower U.S. grain exports because of a record crop in Brazil and its big export potential,” says Steve Freed, vice president of grain research for ADM Investor Services.
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